November 15, 2022
Correction: This post updated to reflect that Rep. Jesse Petrea ran for House majority leader, instead of the speaker’s position.
That was then, this is now
Voter turnout in the U.S. Senate runoff in January 2021 was extraordinary. In the race between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Kelly Loeffler, the drop off from general election was only 8.74% of the more than 4.9 million votes cast, and only 9.5% of the votes cast in the race between Democrat John Ossoff and Republican David Perdue.
That was then, this is now: Millions of dollars are already flowing into the campaign coffers of Warnock and Herschel Walker as campaigning for the Dec. 6 runoff intensifies, but will voters flow to the polls with control of the U.S. Senate no longer at stake?
The question is especially critical for Coastal Georgia Republicans, some of whom put their reservations aside on Nov. 8 and voted for Herschel Walker despite questions about his character and aptitude for elected office. With control of the U.S. Senate no longer at stake, will they do the same this election’s runoff?
Will Donald Trump travel to Georgia to stump for Walker, the former president’s handpicked candidate in the race? Or will the risk of Walker losing deter him?
Pressure’s on
Former President Donald Trump may (or may not) announce his candidacy today for the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination. Although there have been signs for months that Trump intends to run, the actual announcement of his bid will no doubt put many Republican officeholders on the spot, not the least is Coastal Georgia’s Buddy Carter, who was reelected in a landslide on Nov. 8.
Trump endorsed Carter, and the former president — ever the transactional man — will certainly expect Georgia’s First District congressman to return the favor, sooner rather than later, with Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis (dubbed “Ron De-Sanctimonious” by Trump) also set to run for the GOP ticket. The pro-Trump faction among Republicans up and down the Georgia coast will expect that Carter endorsement of Trump, too.
But there’s a let’s-move-on-faction among Coastal Georgia Republicans, and it isn’t insignificant. In the run-up to the midterm elections, they were notably reticent even to discuss the former president’s political future, let alone his equivocating about the fate of the Republican candidates he endorsed. “If they win, I should get all the credit, and if they lose, I should not be blamed at all,” Trump told NewsNation. “But it will probably be just the opposite.”
Carter is deft at straddling political fences, but differences over Trump in Republican ranks his own backyard present a challenge. Hovering over Carter’s response to Trump’s reelection announcement is his own bid to chair the House Budget Committee. He’ll likely need the support of pro-Trump legislators to succeed.
Southeast Georgia rep nominated for speaker
Republicans in the State House of Representatives yesterday selected Jon Burns to stand for the chamber’s next speaker, succeeding David Ralston. Burns, who represents most of Effingham County, all of Screven and a portion of Bulloch in House District 159, becomes the second most powerful politician in Atlanta, behind only the governor. Rep. Jesse Petrea (District 126) ran to replace Burns as majority leader, a post won by Rep. Chuck Efstration of Dacula.
Born and raised in Effingham County, the 70-year-old Burns has been in the House since 2005, representing District 157, then District 159. In 2015, Republicans elected him the House Majority Leader. He is a graduate of Georgia Southern University in Statesboro and John Marshall Law School in Atlanta. In its 2021 rankings of state legislators based on their votes on conservative issues, the American Conservative Union gave Burns a 90 out of a possible 100.
Burns’ political ascent is no surprise, given the goodwill he enjoys among fellow legislators in the state house. The official vote will be in January as the General Assembly convenes.
In 2018, as part of a story examining Georgia’s state campaign finance laws, The Current reported that since becoming majority leader in 2015, the popular agribusiness owner had raised more than $1 million, while facing virtually no opposition for re-election.
Having little need of a political war chest, Burns instead had contributed nearly a quarter-million dollars to other campaigns, taking advantage of a state law that allows politicians to help like-minded candidates cross their own election finish lines.
Taking stock
While control of the U.S. Senate has been decided, as of this writing control it wasn’t clear if Republicans would flip the U.S. House of Representatives — in a speech at The Landings on Skidaway Island in April, Carter predicted a 27-37 seat Republican gain.
Still, while a win is a win, whether it’s by one seat or three dozen, it seems clear that Democrats over performed and Republicans underperformed nationally. Beyond the obvious — including reactions to the Supreme Court decision on abortion, election denialism — it will take weeks of sorting through voting and survey data to sort out exactly why.
Yet when it comes to Georgia and specifically the coast, incumbents — nearly all of them Republican — won handily. Add to the number of Republicans winning contested races to those who ran unopposed, there’s no mystery behind the reasons for victory and defeat on Nov. 8. The real winner was the Incumbent Party.
The stock-taking will be especially painful for Wade Herring, who lost by 18.3% of the vote, the worst showing for a Democrat since Carter defeated Brian Reese in his first election to Congress in 2014 by a 21.8% margin.
When a candidate is defeated so decisively, there’s no single cause — gerrymandering, messaging, character, campaign organization or otherwise.
Herring himself, in his concession speech, said his campaign had, among other things, built alliances and bridges across existing divides, raised enough money to conduct a real campaign, and worked across the entire district to muster support.
What appears plain from the result is that Coastal Georgia will remain scarlet red unless Herring, along with Democrats up and down the coast and in Atlanta, undertake an extensive review and invest resources (read: money, staff, and polling) between elections to build county Democratic committees and identify and nurture those with a promising future in politics.
Trapping impoverished Georgians
“How Title Lenders Trap Poor Georgians in Debt with Triple Digit Interest Rates.” That’s the title of the first installment of a sweeping months-long investigation of Savannah-based TitleMax by The Current’s editor in chief, Margaret Coker, together with Joel Jacobs and Mollie Simon of ProPublica.
“For some Georgia residents, title pawn contracts offer a quick way to obtain desperately needed cash,” the story says. “But poor regulation of a confusing system traps many borrowers in high-interest debt they can’t pay off.”
Look for the series to revive efforts in the General Assembly’s upcoming session to reform the usurious practice of title lending. Two Republicans — Sen. Randy Robertson from Cataula and Sen. Chuck Hufstetler from Rome — shepherded such legislation through Hufstetler’s Senate Finance Committee in 2020, but it never got to the floor for a vote.
Georgians’ high stroke rate combined with hospital closings hurts survival chances
Strokes are preventable but limited access to quick care makes Georgia the 12th highest state death rate in the country.
Georgia Republicans nominate Jon Burns for speaker
Burns pledged to build on Ralston’s successes leading House Republicans during the last two-year term protecting the rights of gun owners and the unborn, making elections “more accessible and secure,” increasing funding for law enforcement and public safety and cutting taxes.
State Senate Republicans choose leadership team
Senate Republicans, who lost one seat to the Democrats in Tuesday’s election but still hold a 33-23 majority, nominated Sen. John Kennedy of Macon president pro tempore.
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